Google's Big Move

Google just announced an operating system for low cost netbook computers. Google's Android is poised to to take over the smart phone market (here's a look at new Android Phones you'll see by Christmas 2009). I've been working developing a few Android applications, and it's pretty clear what Google is up to.

This isn't about pushing MS out of the box. It's about getting into the application distribution business and extending the advertising business. Of all the places where MS has totally screwed up over the past few years, two stand out:

• Microsoft missed the boat on the iTunes model for applications. Much of this has to do with MS reliance on their retail partner channel - which is about as obsolete as the corner record store.
• MSN and MSN advertising have performed abysmally compared to Google. Mobile is a new and huge market - and Google wants in on the ground floor, a ground floor that would be fully occupied had MS done something better than Windows CE.

Enter Android's Market and whatever they call Market for the Chome operating system. Retailers sell devices, Google sells the software (splitting 30% between Google and the carrier and 70% going to the developer). It's a better deal than retail software publishers get, companies wanting to use the cell phone giveaway the device, collect on the subscription model love it, and it simplifies support dramatically by leveraging software package management technology that allows for brain dead easy installs and automatic updates.

There's even one more market to create: Ebooks, which to date Google has not entered but seems poised to do so. Netbooks make great ebook readers, as evidenced by the picture here.

So far Android has been a resounding success (18+ devices by December). Companies wishing to give away netbooks using the cell phone model are facing real problems with Windows - they get little revenue from software sales to users and have massive support headaches due to Windows XP's security issues. The combination of a free operating system, an Andorid Market like model and low support costs is a combination that distributors will not be able to ignore.

Notes:

• Here's Google's official post on the new Chrome Operating System.
  
• If you want some Google Chrome screenshots, your wish is my command.
• Yes, I think Android is going to eat the iPhone's lunch this holiday season. Too many devices (LG, Samsung, HTC and Motorola, are you kidding me?) and carriers for it to fail.
  
• So far as game support goes, if you are buying a netbook to play games, it's like buying a Y2K era 400 Mhz PIII machine. Gaming is really a non starter in this market so far.